Barnes Surging in Latest Poll
Though still polling strongly among men and northwest Missourians, incumbent Republican Congressman Sam Graves has seen his lead shrink over challenger Kay Barnes according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KCTV-TV Kansas City.
The news came days before Barnes convincing win over Riverside’s Ali Sherkat in the Democratic primary. Barnes captured 83 percent of the vote.
In the election for United States House of Representatives from Missouri’s 6th Congressional District, as of August 1, Graves edges the former Kansas City mayor 48 percent to 44 a statistical dead heat given the poll’s 4.2 percent margin of error.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 10 weeks ago, Graves is flat, Barnes is up. More men seem to be gravitating toward Graves, however. Among men, Graves had led by 19, now leads by 23. Among women, the two had been tied; today, Barnes leads by 17 points — a 40-point gender gap.
Barnes continues to lead among all age groups, but by smaller margins in most: among voters age 35 to 49, Graves had led by 11, now leads by 1. Among those age 50 to 64, Graves had led by 9, now leads by 4. Among those 65+, Graves had led by 8, now leads by 2.
Ten weeks ago, 19 percent of Democrats crossed over to vote for Republican Graves. Today, that number has fallen to 12 percent. The number of Republicans crossing over to vote for Democrat Barnes is effectively unchanged, from 7 percent then to 8 percent now.
Independents are moving toward the Republican, however. Last poll, independent voters had favored Graves by 15; they now favor him by 20.
In other campaign news, both sides are said to be “negotiating” terms for a series of debates. So far, the candidates have apparently agreed to two debates one conducted by the St. Joseph’s News Press on Oct. 16 and another sponsored by the Northland Regional Chamber on Oct. 21. Barnes is pushing for televised debates, Graves’ campaign has not responded to the request.